Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis

This paper demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to forestry investment analysis. The main objectives are to discuss the real option theory and show how it can be adopted to model uncertainty and managerial flexibility in forest management and investment. Secondly, we show how to calculate the option values of selected options that may be available to managers of forest industry firms. The paper provides an empirical application, which compares a forestry investment using the static Faustmann model and the real options approach. Four management options are used for the real options approach: an option to delay reforestation, an option to expand the size of the wood processing plant, an option to abandon the processing plant if timber prices fall below a certain level or due to corporate take-over, and multiple options that evaluated all three options together. All options were evaluated using the binomial option-pricing model, where timber values are assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The results show that the Faustmann analysis rejected the investments as unprofitable, while the option analysis showed that all three options were highly valuable if exercised. When real options are considered, the traditional Faustmann model for assessing the profitability of a forestry investment may fail to provide an adequate decision-making framework because it does not properly value management's ability to adjust to shocks in the economy, as well as risks and uncertainty.     

长江中上游马尾松水土保持林生长过程模型研究

将乔木、灌木和草本层次结构合理、郁闭度为0．68左右，蓄水固土功能最优的林分定义为马尾松水土保持林的优良林分，从制表单元、编表样本、模型建立到数表编制，系统地论述了长江中上游马尾松水土保持林优良林分生物量生长过程表的制表过程．为长江中上游水土保持林的经营提供了决策依据．     

Application of the analytic hierarchy process to riparian revegetation policy options

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups, and elicitation of importance weights of objectives and determination of rankings of a number of policy options by these stakeholder groups becomes critical in decision-making. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a multicriteria analysis technique that provides an appropriate tool to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. The AHP allows the users to assess the relative importance of multiple criteria (or multiple alternatives against a given criterion) in an intuitive manner. This paper presents an application of AHP to obtain preference weights of environmental, social and economic objectives which have been used in ranking riparian revegetation policy options in a small catchment (watershed) in north Queensland, Australia. The preference weights towards environmental, economic and social objectives have been obtained for the various stakeholder groups (landholders, representatives of local sugar mill staff, environmentalists, recreational fishers and the local community). The AHP technique has proved useful in eliciting objectives and ranking policy options as well as in checking for consistency of the statements of stakeholder groups. Implementation of this approach requires a complex data elicitation process.     

The process of decline of an endangered tree species,Pinus armandii Franch. var.amamiana (Koidz.) Hatusima, on the southern slope of Mt. Hasa-dake in Yaku-shima Island

The process of decline of an endangered tree species,Pinus armandii var.amamiana, was monitored on the southern slope of Mt. Hasa-dake in Yaku-shima Island from 1994 to 1998. There are 163 trees ofP. armandii var.amamiana over 1.3 m in height. They are distributed on steep ridges and rocks with a thin soil layer mostly consisting of friable granite. During the monitoring period, 21 trees ofP. armandii var.amamiana died and the mortality rate was 12.9%. Dead trees were categorized into three types: standing, uprooted and landslide. The uprooted- and landslide-typed dead trees were found only after a severe typhoon struck Yaku-shima Island. This suggests that the combination of fragile site conditions and severe typhoons play an important role in the process of decline ofP. armandii var.amamiana. The standing-typed dead trees were presumed to have been killed by pine wilt disease, accounting for 71.4% of the dead trees. However,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, the cause of pine wilt disease, was not detected from any of the wood chips or branch samples from the standing-typed dead trees ofP. armandii var.amamiana. This might indicate that some factor(s) other than pine wilt disease could be responsible for the standing-typed death ofP. armandii var.amamiana in natural habitats. A part of this paper was presented at the 109th Meeting of the Japanese Forestry Society.     

Biogeography of mangrove and saltmarsh vegetation: implications for conservation and management in Australia

Despite an undeserved reputation for being dull and homogenous systems, mangal and saltmarsh in Australia have highly complex patterns and processes. Their role as key edge systems between land and sea has implications for many species which have larval stages in mangal and saltmarsh, but spend adult life as benthic, pelagic or demersal species. Many such species are also important commercially. Mangal and saltmarsh are both highly dynamic systems, reacting rapidly to changes in hydrological condition and sedimentation. In many areas of the world mangal and saltmarsh are threatened systems, especially near human habitation. Appropriate management strategies for mangal and saltmarsh are therefore critical for both conservation and sustainable use, the two key objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Clearing and associated development, invasion of alien species, pollution effects and poor management are the key threats to these systems. Management at a bioregional level, including the development of a comprehensive system of protected areas, is identified as the key management strategy which will ensure an adequate future for these dynamic systems.     

同龄纯林自然稀疏规律的研究

本文提出同龄纯林自(然)稀硫的理论方程式。这个方程式概括了各种不同立木度林分的自稀疏规律,由此方程式结合断面积生长模型可以导出不同初始密度林分的自然生长过程。熟知的完满立木度林分的自稀疏规律是本文所述方程式的特例。一个实例说明不同初始密度林分自然生长过程的计算方法及例证不同密度林分自稀疏规律的不同。     

内燃机故障声响信号时间序列模型诊断方法

本文运用统计模式识别原理,提出了一种以内燃机声响信号的时间序列自回归系数及自回归倒谱系数作为模式的特征参数,对参考模式和待检模式用灰色系统的关联测度、Mahalanobis距离测度和Kullback-leiber信息量距离测度同时进行识别,并用层次分析法对识别结果进行综合,从而达到诊断故障目的的方法。通过实验验证,表明其是有效而可行的方法。     

印度尼西亚竹子栽培与利用

竹子在印度尼西亚广为使用，尤其是在乡村，因为它生长快，易采伐，使用方便，性能好。本文“印度尼西亚竹子栽培与利用”报道了目前印尼竹子的栽培、加工及研究、开发方面的进展。在印尼，许多竹种的栽植历史已有好几百年。传统的繁殖方法是用秆及鞭，而其它栽培繁殖方法尚处于试验阶段。可以这样说，印尼的竹子栽培研究尚处于早期的开拓时期。竹子在印尼有许多用途，如建筑材料，家具，墙，篮子，家庭器具，造纸，篱笆，手工艺品，农具，乐器及食品。目前，印尼竹子加工利用技术研究正处于全面的开发阶段。今后竹子作为工业用材的前景非常广阔，然而也存在一些问题。为提高竹子对乡村社会的贡献，促进竹子工业利用的发展，我们应该对竹子的生物学特性，营林，社会经济，新产品设计、开发，防蛀防霉，精加工等等进行更深入的研究。     

刨花板垂直平面压缩流变性能研究(Ⅱ)

用参数分离法对不同密度刨花板所进行的垂直平面压缩流变性能的研究,进一步证明了该方法的可靠性。密度对流变性能的影响主要表现在:瞬间弹性变形和推迟弹性变形柔量函数C_(HR(f))=A+Blogt中的B值均随密度的提高而减小;瞬间塑性变形随密度的提高而降低,并且,对贴面刨花板厚度控制具特殊意义的塑性变形——压缩应力关系曲线的第一个“转折点”随密度的提高而向应力增大方向移动;依赖时间之塑性变形柔量函数∑_(P(t))=A+Blogt中的B值随密度的提高而减小,并且,密度的提高导致依赖时间之塑性变形的“三阶段发展”向应力增大方向推移。这些规律的发现,对正确确定贴面条件和基板条件,严格控制贴面刨花板厚度偏差具有重要的指导意义。     

关于现浇箱梁预压方法--水压法的探讨

支架预压是现浇梁施工必须经过的准备工序。介绍了水压法的可行性和简单的操作过程 ,并对水压法和钢筋预压法的成本、工期进行了比较研究